The central motivating belief which is driving Scottish Nationalists at present is the belief that 2014 set a precedent that Scotland can become independent, and the United Kingdom can be destroyed, merely as the result of a one-off referendum, won by a simple numerical majority, on the day.
The ScotNats obsess about this, because we've set the bar so low! They obsess about it because it is so easy to jump. They only need 5% more!
We say: Never Again must 50% of the Vote on the Day, plus 1, be the Deciding Factor!
Our group, A Force For Good, believes that the idea that Britain can be broken up by 50% of the vote on the day, plus 1 person, is absurd and unacceptable.
It is absurd because it is far too easy a route. The bar is set too low. We have to put it out their reach, and then watch their enthusiasm decline.
And it is unacceptable because such a close result would leave Scotland bitterly divided.
We see the UK as a Unitary State and One Nation which cannot and should not be defeated by a simple one-off political device, such as a referendum.
We want to encourage our politicians to see the UK as a genuine Nation in and of itself, which has been politically united for centuries, and which has been uniting socially and culturally for millennia.
Our Nation must not be allowed to be broken up by such a result.
The United Kingdom has a right to be properly protected against the referendum device by a range of constitutional safeguards.
It must not be unravelled by a mere one-off referendum, won by a simple numerical majority, of those who happen to bother to vote on the day.
It has to be made more stable than that!
How to do this?
Here are some suggestions which we can start talking about!
1. Rule out a 2nd IndyRef
A separation referendum has potentially catastrophic consequences for the United Kingdom.
Therefore, the British Parliament must be fully involved and engaged.
As we have stated before, no further referendum on separation should be allowed in the lifetime of this Parliament.
2. A Four-Fifths Vote Required at Westminster in order to pass a Referendum Bill
However, if at a future date, such were being proposed then it should require a specific vote in Westminster approved by at least four-fifths of all the 650 MPs.
This majority in the British Parliament would be a recognition that the whole of the UK is adversely affected by such a referendum, and would suffer from the consequences.
(Thanks to Stay United Scotland Society, "The Oban Declaration; a Discussion Paper", 6-12-14 for suggesting this idea to us.)
A Threshold is a barrier which has to be crossed before the vote is considered to have passed.
Here are 3 examples of Threshold Requirements.
The point of these Thresholds is to ensure that the required figure is sufficiently high to indicate overwhelming support for the proposition, and ensure that the country is not bitterly divided down the middle; as would be the case if the winning margin was only a percentage point or two eg 51/49 of those who happened to vote on the day.
In effect, we can set one Threshold or a combination of all three. For example, we can have...
1. Minimum Turnout Threshold
This means that a certain percentage of the electorate needs to be required to vote for the proposition before the result can be considered.
This demonstrates that sufficient numbers of people are engaged with the issue; otherwise it should naturally fall. We suggest we use the precedent of the 2014 turnout, which means that there should be at least an 85% turnout. If not, the Separation Proposition should fall without further consideration.
2. Minimum Majority Threshold
This means a certain percentage of people on the day must vote in favour of the proposition for it to be considered.
Where can we look for precedent?