Why Shabana's Reforms Won't Stop the Small Boats
Updated: 2 days ago
Pic: An Immigration Control demo, Falkirk, Jan 2026.
AFFG Director, Alistair McConnachie explains the Home Secretary's changes to the Permanent Settlement options for Legal Immigrants and Refugees, announced in the House of Commons on 2-11-26. Will they make a difference to the numbers crossing the Channel?
Prior to the Home Secretary's announcement in the House of Commons (2-11-26), Legal Immigrants who are legally resident with a visa (for example, a work visa) and "Refugees" (those asylum seekers whose asylum claims have been granted) were all able to apply for "Indefinite Leave to Remain" (aka ILR or Permanent Settlement) after 5 years' residence in the UK.
The reason why people apply for ILR is because it opens up the entire British Benefit System to the immigrant on the same basis as if he or she were a fully-fledged British Citizen. That's why immigrants want to acquire it!
However, ILR is also a very costly and completely unnecessary programme which does absolutely nothing for the indigenous population other than increase its welfare bill.
Why Edward Heath's government introduced it via the 1971 Immigration Act is anyone's guess. Explanations include the notion that it reduces the administrative "burden" of always having to renew visas, and somehow helps to "smooth" the immigrant's transition to British Citizenship – whatever that means or how it's meant to benefit the rest of us?
Anyway, this 5-year ILR was granted, regardless of how the person arrived in the first place; that is, whether legally on a visa, or legally as an asylum seeker (say through an airport on a tourist visa, or after their work or study visa ran out) or whether "irregularly" as an asylum seeker through what would normally be considered an illegal route, say, in a dinghy, or in the back of a lorry.
The massive legal Boriswave, which came in from 2020, are now becoming eligible to claim ILR after 5 years' residence. This could bring an additional welfare bill of billions of pounds for the long-suffering British taxpayer. Hence the reason why the Home Secretary has kicked their waiting time down the road a bit.
Indeed, her House of Commons announcement changes their waiting periods in a quite surprising way.
OUR RESERVATIONS
Before we praise part of it, let's just say firstly that we do not like the exemptions she has made.
We don't like that she is keeping the 5-year ILR option available for the "care workers" and their dependents who arrived prior to May 2025. There is reckoned to be around 280,000 of them. This is a sop to the open-border Labour back-benchers.
Nor do we like the fact that the very wealthy are getting a reduced 3-year waiting period!
Secondly, we definitely do not like her official government scheme for "Safe Routes".
This is a scheme whereby people who have already been granted Refugee Status outside the UK are allowed to enter via this official route. Under Ms Mahmood's new rules, these people will still be granted ILR after 5 years, as at present.
As far as we are concerned, the "Safe Routes" policy creates another endless open door, and it will be massively abused by the multi-million pound NGO and "charity" sector (which should actually be de-funded not given more money). It's a policy which should not be entertained for a moment. Again, it is only being done to appease the Open-Border enthusiasts in the Labour Party (and keep the United Nations happy).
However, the change to the default waiting period for most of those who have arrived in other ways is refreshing.
As we say, prior to this announcement, every Legal Immigrant and official Refugee (regardless of how he or she originally entered the country) had the option to settle permanently after 5 years in the UK.
THE NEW WAITING RULES
Under the new rules, the default position is that Legal Immigrants who came in under work or study or family visas will now have to wait 10 years (instead of 5) before they can apply for ILR. This includes a lot of the Boriswave (except care workers and their dependents, and exceptions, as above).
Those Refugees who arrived via a legal route – such as through an airport – will now have to wait 10 years (instead of 5) before they can apply for permanent settlement. However, this will require them to show evidence of having spent this time in work or study.
If they have not reached the requirements – maybe they just lived off benefits – then they will have to wait 20 years before they can apply for permanent settlement.
Those Refugees who arrived in the UK via what would be considered an illegal route – such as by small boat or lorry – will now have to wait 20 years if they work or study, and a remarkable 30 years if they cannot show this.
There is no doubt that changing Indefinite Leave to Remain for a Refugee from 5 years if you've never worked, to 30 years if you've never worked, is a really good policy – surprisingly so – and it should be applauded.
WILL THESE NEW REFORMS MAKE a DIFFERENCE to the NUMBER of SMALL BOATS?
Here's the thing. It won't discourage very many. This is because the main incentive to get here remains. That is…
THE MAIN INCENTIVE to BECOME a REFUGEE in BRITAIN is IMMEDIATE ACCESS to the BENEFIT SYSTEM
Under Britain's membership of the UN Refugee Convention (Articles 23 and 24) we are required to give official Refugees "the same treatment with respect to public relief and assistance as is accorded to" British nationals.
That is, as soon as their asylum claim is accepted and they are declared official Refugees then they immediately get access to the same benefit regime as British Citizens.
Acquiring the status of "Indefinite Leave to Remain" (aka Permanent Settlement) does not actually offer them much more than what they already get as soon as they become an official Refugee.
Indeed, it would be perfectly possible for a boat person to be given Refugee Status and lounge around for 30 years on benefits before bothering to apply for permanent settlement anyway!
THE SOLUTION to DETER ASYLUM SEEKERS trying to get REFUGEE STATUS
The only sensible way around this is:
a) Leave the UN Refugee Convention and set up a specific UK-TAP (Temporary Asylum Programme) which sets our own rules on the matter, including minimal to no access to the Benefits System.
b) This would also allow us to regularly review the person's Refugee Status in light of changing circumstances in his or her own country. We should be prepared to revoke Refugee Status and deport such people when circumstances change. This would ensure they don't get to stay here for 10, 20 or 30 years anyway.
To read more about our UK-TAP policy, please note that we cover it extensively in Chapters 8, 9, and 10 of "Protect our Country: Policies to Stop Mass Immigration" available from Amazon here or Search Amazon for "Protect our Country".
WE SHOULD ALSO JUST ABOLISH the CONCEPT of "INDEFINITE LEAVE TO REMAIN"
Our view, we should emphasise, is that Indefinite Leave to Remain – and the concept of a legal right to some kind of permanent settlement – should simply be abolished.
It serves no good purpose for the indigenous population and benefits only the immigrant. There is literally no point, or benefit, in it for anyone other than the immigrant.
Why do we have policies which benefit only the immigrant and are nothing but an expense for the indigenous population?
ILR should be replaced with the concept of "Contingent Residence" where there is never an option for full access to the Benefit System. Furthermore, British Citizenship should be made extremely hard to acquire.
We explain our concept of Contingent Residence in depth in chapter 7 of "Protect our Country: Policies to Stop Mass Immigration" available on Amazon.
However, that's for the future.
For now, Ms Mahmood has made some positive moves in the right direction – for which we can be grateful – and which we can use to further develop the asylum regime in the correct direction as above.
Unfortunately, conscious of "Britain's responsibilities under the UN Refugee Convention" her "Safe Routes" policy represents a very bad move in the absolute wrong direction!
APPENDIX: HOW WILL MAHMOOD's REFORMS AFFECT "BRITISH CITIZENSHIP"?
Prior to these reforms, a Legal Immigrant or a Refugee could apply 1 year after being granted ILR (which they could do after 5 years). That represented a 6-year path to Citizenship.
Under these new reforms, it means that a Legal Immigrant will be able to apply after 11 years (10+1, unless they are part of the 3-year or 5-year exemptions).
A Refugee who has been granted ILR (and who arrived via what is considered a legal route) can apply for British Citizenship after 11 years (10+1).
A Refugee who arrived via what would be considered an illegal route, such as a small boat or lorry, can apply after 21 years (20+1, if they have worked or studied) and a Refugee who arrived via a small boat or lorry and has never worked or studied can apply after 31 years (30+1).
We spoke about this on our Show, "Good Evening Britain", on 4-11-26:
For more articles on immigration see our Territorial Sovereignty: Article Index
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