Police Guesstimates of IndyMarch Numbers is Becoming a Problem

Most of the march was not tightly packed

On Saturday 2 June 2018, 21 of our activists met the ScotNat march in Dumfries. We stood at the narrowest point of the march – at the Burns Statue – and we generously calculated that 3,000 slowly passed our point in a period of around 25 minutes.

How we Calculated the Numbers

We count the number passing a giving point in 1 minute. We do this several times. Then we take the average = 120; then we multiply that by the time the march took = 120 x 25 = 3,000. That is the standard way to estimate the numbers on any march!

As can be seen from the pictures on this page, our vantage point was perfect.

Standing at the narrowest part of the march, witnessing the slow pace, the regular holdups, and the wide spaces in the often very loose crowd, made it easy for us to calculate these numbers.

The tightest-packed area was at the front, with the march gradually become looser as time passed. Therefore, our average estimated in the first few minutes, but calculated as consistent over the entire 25 minutes, will be a very generous estimate.

We're meant to accept that 10,000 in this formation passed in 25 minutes!

Immediately after the march, we spoke to a Police Liaison Officer. He told us the Police estimate was 3,500. We concurred. While it was a little higher than our estimation of 3,000 – it was in our ballpark.

Therefore, it became surprising, disappointing and worrying, that the Dumfries and Galloway Police stated that there were "10,000" on the march. All evidence clearly disproves that number – which is wildly out – including their own video evidence.